Not long ago, rental markets across the U.S. and Canada were defined by steady or rising costs, with only pockets of softening. Today, the story is evolving.

From Stability to Softening: Housing Markets Continue to Shift Across the U.S. and Canada

AIRINC’s latest housing infographic highlights a shift that is becoming more consistent across North America. Increased supply, changing demand, and ongoing affordability pressures are reshaping both rental and sales markets. While conditions still vary by location, the direction of travel is clearer than it was even a year ago.

Drawing on AIRINC’s housing data and ongoing client work, these trends are not unexpected, but they are becoming more visible in how they affect mobility programs and employee decisions.

U.S. Rentals: Oversupply Changes the Conversation

In the U.S., the rental market is no longer just mixed. In many locations, it is actively softening.

A wave of new multi-unit construction, particularly across the Sunbelt and Southeast, has created an oversupply of apartments. Asking rents are declining in many markets, and landlords are relying more heavily on concessions to attract tenants. AIRINC data shows incentives averaging close to 9 percent of annual rent when offered, with a large share of buildings now providing some form of discount on new leases.

At the same time, an additional source of supply is emerging. So-called accidental landlords are entering the market as homeowners struggle to sell. This is especially evident in Texas and Florida, where rising insurance costs, condo fees, and stalled sales are pushing more properties into the rental pool.

However, not all segments are moving in the same direction. Single-family rental homes remain limited and continue to perform well, supported by strong demand from families. In working with clients to set housing levels, this segment continues to behave very differently from the apartment market. Markets tied to technology and resilient local economies are also holding steadier.

Previously, softening was more localized. Now, supply-driven pressure is more widespread, particularly in the apartment segment.

Canada Rentals: A Reset After Rapid Growth

Canadian rental markets are also shifting, particularly in large urban centers.

After a prolonged period of rising rents, prices are now declining in many cities. The primary driver is increased supply, especially from new construction focused on smaller one- and two-bedroom units. At the same time, demand has cooled due to slower population growth and fewer international arrivals.

More condo owners are also listing their units for rent, adding to available inventory and contributing to downward pressure on prices. Through AIRINC’s housing analysis, this trend is most pronounced in major cities, while smaller locations have shown more stability.

As in the U.S., the trend is not uniform. Larger housing units remain constrained, and single-family houses continue to show stability or modest increases.

The Canadian market is moving from a period of constrained supply to a more balanced environment, with some locations now experiencing oversupply.

Sales Markets: High Interest Rates Continue to Weigh on Activity

Across both countries, sales markets are adjusting under the weight of higher borrowing costs.

In the U.S., mortgage rates remain high enough to discourage both buyers and sellers. Many homeowners are reluctant to give up historically low rates to move up the property market, while first-time buyers are increasingly cautious. With rental markets offering some relief, fewer households are willing to stretch their budgets to purchase. This is increasing inventory, extending sale timelines, and putting downward pressure on prices in several regions.

This shift is also influencing mobility outcomes, as more employees delay purchase decisions and remain in rental housing longer.

Canada is seeing a similar correction. Higher interest rates have reduced affordability and slowed demand, while more listings are giving buyers greater choice. Broader economic concerns, including rising unemployment and slower population growth, are also contributing to reduced demand.

What began as early signs of softening has developed into a clearer slowdown in both pricing and transaction activity.

What This Means for Mobility Teams

For mobility programs, these shifts require a more detailed and flexible approach. 

Increased supply and concessions for apartments may create more opportunity for negotiation, which can help manage costs if incorporated into program design. While the limited availability for single family homes may require some flexibility in house-hunting support or possibly extra time in temporary housing, as the USA and Canada markets enter the busy summer season for relocating with school aged children.

At the same time, home purchase decisions are slowing. More employees may choose to rent for longer periods, increasing demand for extended rental support. Despite broader trends, local variation remains significant, particularly by housing type and economic conditions.

In practice, this reinforces the importance of combining housing data with an understanding of employee living patterns and program structure.

Looking Ahead

Housing markets across North America are not reversing course entirely, but they are recalibrating.

As highlighted in AIRINC’s latest infographic and supported by ongoing client work and research, this period of adjustment is likely to continue as supply and demand rebalance. For mobility teams, this is an opportunity to reassess assumptions and ensure policies reflect current market conditions.

Markets that were tight just a year ago may now offer more flexibility, while others continue to behave differently depending on housing type and local economic strength. The most effective strategies will continue to rely on current, location-specific data and a clear understanding of how these trends translate into the employee experience.

How AIRINC Supports Domestic Mobility Programs

As housing markets shift from tight conditions to more variable and, in some cases, oversupplied environments, mobility teams need accurate data and clear guidance to respond effectively. Understanding where rents are softening, where concessions are increasing, and where housing types are behaving differently is critical to making informed program decisions.

AIRINC’s domestic solutions provide the data and analysis organizations need to navigate these changing conditions. This includes detailed housing and cost-of-living data, support for lump-sum modeling, policy benchmarking, and insight into state-to-state tax considerations. Together, these resources help mobility professionals design programs that remain competitive, equitable, and aligned with current market realities.

With a focus on practical analysis grounded in real housing trends, AIRINC supports clients as they adapt their domestic mobility strategies to meet today’s conditions and prepare for continued market change.