Exchange rates opened 2026 with meaningful movement across several markets. In January, domestic policy decisions, commodity price strength, inflation pressures, and geopolitical tensions all shaped currency performance. Some currencies strengthened on the back of reform efforts and export gains, while others continued to face pressure amid economic uncertainty.

January 2026 Exchange Rate Update: What Mobility Teams Should Be Watching

For global mobility teams, these developments are not just macroeconomic headlines. Exchange rate volatility directly influences assignment costs, affects cost of living allowances, and shapes employee purchasing power in real time. Understanding what is driving currency change helps mobility leaders make informed and measured decisions.

Below, we look at what moved in January and what it may mean for mobility programs.

What Causes a Currency to Strengthen or Weaken?

Currencies move based on supply and demand. Demand tends to increase when export revenues rise, foreign investment flows in, or monetary policy supports economic stability. Commodity exporting economies often benefit when global prices for key exports increase.

Conversely, high inflation, political instability, sanctions, or declining export revenues can weaken a currency. When purchasing power erodes or uncertainty rises, investors and individuals often shift toward more stable currencies, placing downward pressure on the local market.

For mobility teams, the key question is not simply whether a currency moves up or down, but why it is moving and whether inflation is reinforcing or offsetting that shift.

How AIRINC Tracks Exchange Rates and Inflation

Exchange rate monitoring is most meaningful when viewed alongside changes in local prices. Currency fluctuations alone do not determine purchasing power. The cost of goods and services in both the home and host locations must also be considered.

Each quarter, AIRINC publishes Data Points to highlight notable shifts we are seeing across markets. These updates provide visibility into exchange rate movements and goods and services inflation trends that may affect mobility programs.

Behind these highlights sits a broader and continuously maintained dataset. AIRINC surveys hundreds of locations globally and monitors goods and services pricing, inflation, and currency movements to ensure that companies are working with current and reliable data. Major business centers are reviewed on a regular schedule, and markets experiencing volatility are monitored more closely as conditions evolve.

In fast moving environments, timely data allows mobility teams to assess real purchasing power impacts and respond thoughtfully rather than reactively.

Which Currencies Are Appreciating or Depreciating?

ZMW – Zambian Kwacha

The Zambian kwacha appreciated notably in January 2026 due to a combination of domestic policy actions and supportive global conditions. The government’s de-dollarization directive played a central role, requiring transactions to be settled in local currency and triggering heavy dollar selling that increased demand for the kwacha. Elevated copper prices further boosted export revenues and strengthened foreign exchange inflows, while continued progress in external debt restructuring improved investor confidence and reduced perceived risk. Overall, the currency’s appreciation reflects a blend of deliberate domestic reforms aimed at reinforcing economic stability and favorable external market forces that enhanced Zambia’s foreign exchange position.

For mobility programs, appreciation in Zambia may reduce cost of living allowance requirements for certain inbound assignments, depending on the home host currency relationship and relative inflation levels.

GHS – Ghanaian Cedi

The Ghanaian cedi appreciated in January 2026 as a result of strong external inflows coupled with deliberate domestic policy measures. These external inflows, driven largely by elevated gold-related export receipts, strengthened the country’s foreign exchange position and supported the currency’s upward momentum. Record high global gold prices significantly increased export earnings, improving the country’s foreign exchange position. At the same time, the Bank of Ghana’s buildup of gold reserves and stronger gross international reserves bolstered market confidence and helped ease speculative pressure. These gains were supported by tighter monetary policy, improved foreign exchange interventions, and continued fiscal discipline under the IMF backed reform program, all of which contributed to stronger investor sentiment. Overall, the cedi’s rise reflects both Ghana’s proactive economic management and favorable global commodity trends that reinforced its upward momentum.

For organizations with assignees in Ghana, currency appreciation may influence balance sheet calculations and potentially narrow purchasing power gaps. Exchange rate changes should always be evaluated alongside local price movements to understand the full impact.

VES – Venezuelan Bolivar

The Venezuelan bolivar continues to struggle with high inflation and exchange rate volatility. Steep inflation remains a significant factor in the Venezuelan economy. The oil industry faces numerous changes, including new sanctions from the U.S. as well as moves to ease restrictions and authorize new activity in the sector. While some of these changes aim to increase dollar inflow and stabilize the exchange market, the currency remains under pressure in the short term, and the overall impact on inflation and the bolivar continues to unfold.

In high inflation environments, purchasing power can shift quickly. Mobility teams managing assignments in Venezuela may need to review compensation more frequently to ensure alignment with changing economic conditions.

IRR – Iranian Rial

Over the last month, the Iranian rial depreciated significantly amid high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and underlying domestic economic weakness. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. sanctions enforcement and diplomatic negotiations affected economic confidence and access to foreign currency, contributing to exchange rate volatility. The weaker rial increased the cost of imports, adding to inflation. Rising living costs and economic strain fuel domestic tension, which further weakened confidence in the rial and increased demand for dollars and other stable currencies.

Assignments in volatile markets such as Iran often require closer monitoring to maintain purchasing power and manage budget accuracy.

Should the COLA Be Updated When Exchange Rates Move?

Cost of living allowance is paid separately from base salary and can be adjusted as economic conditions change.

Two primary factors influence whether a COLA review may be appropriate. The first is exchange rate movement between the home and host locations. A strengthening home currency may reduce the required allowance, while a weakening one may increase it. The second is inflation or deflation in either location, which affects the relative cost of goods and services.

Updating COLA to reflect both exchange rate and inflation changes helps maintain purchasing power parity. At the same time, decreases can raise employee questions, making clear communication about data driven adjustments especially important.

Understanding that a change occurred is only part of the equation. Assignees often want to know why their COLA moved, what time period was measured, how exchange rates factored in, what inflation looked like in both locations, and whether other elements such as salary adjustments played a role.

Many teams appreciate having a transparent, personalized explanation ready to share. AIRINC’s COLA Change Report, available within the International Assignment Calculator, visually walks through the specific factors driving an individual assignee’s COLA increase or decrease, including exchange rate impact and inflation impact. It is designed to make complex calculations easier to understand and conversations easier to manage, while reinforcing confidence that adjustments are grounded in objective data.

How Are Companies Approaching COLA Updates Today?

In our recent Long Term Assignment Survey, we asked companies how frequently they review COLA and whether they monitor exchange rate changes between scheduled updates.

What we see is a range of practices. Many organizations follow an annual or semi annual review cycle. Some review more frequently. Others revisit COLA only when economic conditions prompt concern.

Approaches to exchange rate monitoring also vary. Some companies rely primarily on scheduled updates, while others monitor specific markets more closely or assess changes when currency movements exceed internal thresholds. 

There is no single approach that fits every organization. What stands out is the balance mobility teams are managing between program stability and responsiveness to economic change.

We share additional benchmark data in the Long Term Assignment Survey Highlights. The full survey provides deeper benchmarking insights for teams reviewing any aspect of their long term assignments. Contact us for more details on the full survey.

What This Means for Mobility Programs in 2026

January’s currency movements reinforce that exchange rates, inflation, commodity cycles, and policy decisions are interconnected. Appreciation in Zambia and Ghana reflects export strength and reform momentum. Continued pressure in Venezuela and Iran highlights how inflation and uncertainty can sustain volatility.

For mobility leaders, the priority is not reacting to every movement, but ensuring monitoring practices align with current economic conditions. Reliable, up to date data combined with clear policy governance supports balanced and defensible mobility programs throughout 2026.