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Currency Shakes, Trade Quakes, and Inflation Spikes

Written by Stephanie De Los Angeles | Aug 28, 2024 @ 10:34 PM

Each year, we survey over 300 cities, covering major business hubs annually or biannually, while more volatile locations are assessed more frequently. This research includes pricing over 300 items per city, targeting specific international brands and sizes, and gathering data from multiple outlets. With insights from thousands of locations across more than 150 countries, we provide the most current and accurate information for global mobility managers. To share these findings, we introduced Data Points many years ago — a curated selection of AIRINC research results available on our website.

Photo by AIRINC Researcher Lili McPherson
In our previous blogs, we explored Data Point changes in expatriate taxes and housing markets. Now, we turn our attention to goods and services inflation and exchange rates, which directly impacts the cost of living for expatriates. And it is certainly a topic I frequently discuss with my clients.

Spotlight on the Mexican Peso (MXN): 

The Mexican peso faced significant volatility following the presidential election in June 2024. Claudia Sheinbaum's victory and subsequent economic reforms triggered a sharp devaluation. However, the currency has started to stabilize, although investor confidence remains cautious.

More recently, the proposed judicial reforms are being received with concerns by both Canada and the US, Mexico’s two largest trade partners. The US and Canada reaction indicated a potential risk to the North American trade relationship, causing further volatility of the currency.

 

Expats watch exchange rate changes closely as it directly impacts their purchasing power while on assignment in Mexico. AIRINC highly recommends regular COLA (cost of living allowance) updates for exchange rates in order to help protect their purchasing power while on assignment.

 

Electric Vehicle Trade War:

 

A potential trade war looms as China and the EU negotiate tariffs on electric vehicles. In May, President Biden raised U.S. tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%, with Canada considering similar measures. The EU had planned a 38.1% import duty by July, but after negotiations with China, it confirmed tariffs of up to 37.6%, varying by manufacturer. These tariffs, however, won’t take effect until November, pending final EU approval. Consumer markets may experience some tumultuous pricing in the coming months as China considers its response.

 

High Inflation Locations:

 

Several regions have experienced inflation rates exceeding 5% over the past six months, notably Laos, Northern Cyprus, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. These trends underscore the importance of closely monitoring cost-of-living adjustments for expatriates in these areas. AIRINC’s COLA Change Report is a transparent personalized report that reflects changes in an assignee’s specific COLA (Cost of Living Allowance) amount and explains the reasons behind the change (included in the International Assignment Calculator). The COLA change report is a favorite for my clients because it breaks down the changes for exchange rates and inflation in both home and host locations. COLA is always in flux and expats often have difficulties understanding the allowance and why it is changing. These reports help communicate the changes to the expat's specific allowance and breaks it down with easy-to-understand visuals.

 

Stay tuned for our next installment, where we'll explore navigating the complex landscape of global mobility.